2010年10月22日金曜日

From : http://www.alibuybuy.com/26152.html

阿里巴巴物流战略曝光:计划入股物流公司及自建仓储

摘要: 10月19日下午消息,阿里巴巴集团对物流领域的展露已经日渐坚决:据消息人士透露,目前阿里巴巴集团已经启动包括入股物流公司以及和他们展开仓储层面的合作,甚至不排除自建仓储体系。 阿里计划入股物流公司甚至自建仓储 数月前,马云在阿里巴巴内部战略会上就表示希望在5-...

10月19日下午消息,阿里巴巴集团对物流领域的展露已经日渐坚决:据消息人士透露,目前阿里巴巴集团已经启动包括入股物流公司以及和他们展开仓储层面的合作,甚至不排除自建仓储体系。

阿里计划入股物流公司甚至自建仓储

数月前,马云在阿里巴巴内部战略会上就表示希望在5-8年内,企业工厂里面最好不要有货,货直接配送到阿里在全中国20多个城市的仓库,通过信息平台的的匹配,企业可以迅速把货送到用户手上。

而上述内容的具体运作是,今明两年淘宝要在52个城市建立分仓, 扩大目前淘宝已建立了的北京、上海、广州深圳、成都的四大配送中心,在全国20多个省市建了物流配送中心。消息人士指出,如果仅单纯依赖和物流公司的合作,恐怕速度跟不上这一目标。

“因此阿里内部已经在考虑和合作伙伴共建或者部分自建仓储。不过对于合作的物流公司,内部是强调不会涉及到后端与客户接触的快递服务,与物流快递公司竞争。”知情人士说。

事实上从9月份开始,阿里巴巴集团旗下包括淘宝的物流项目组,有多个部门在全国各大城市考察物流合作伙伴和仓储用地,考察对象包括中远物流和宝供物流等,此前阿里高管团队赴重庆,目的之一也是为了考察两江新区作为分仓的可能性。

马云曾经说过“物流是制约电子商务发展的最大问题”。数据显示,目前淘宝业务已占很多快递公司业务量的50%~80%。随着淘宝递送量的激涨,多数快递公司的扩张速度已经难以与其匹配,进而导致服务品质下降。另一方面,居高不下的物流费用也在很大程度上制约了淘宝网的进一步发展。

在今年的网商大会上,马云说“大家会说,‘阿里巴巴不是一直说不做物流吗’?其实我第一天说我们也不想做资金流,但有的时候,你不去做解决不了问题。现在物流又碰上大问题了。”

阿里巴巴低调布局物流行业

信息流、资金流和物流,一向被业界称为影响电子商务发展的三个问题。目前阿里集团通过阿里巴巴、淘宝平台和支付宝工具,已经解决信息流和资金流的问题。接下来如何简化物流环节,缩短消费者与厂家的供求距离,节约社会成本成为阿里集团迫在眉睫的问题。

事实上阿里巴巴早已开始布局物流行业。此前,新加坡政府投资公司(GIC)旗下物流部门普洛斯公司首次公开发行股票(IPO),阿里巴巴集团旗下的Alibaba Group Treasury Limited,共购买了1350万股普洛斯股份,占普洛斯完成IPO后总股本的0.3%。

今年3月29日,阿里巴巴集团宣布战略投资国内最大的物流公司之一的星辰急便速递有限公司,星辰急便现已在全国范围内建立了32个运转中心,50多个中转站和分拨中心,网点数量达1500余个。

另据媒体报道,马云个人还联合郭台铭,在杭州低调投资了百世物流科技有限公司。而百世物流已经完成了对业内排名第六的汇通快递70%股权收购。

据知情人士透露,阿里巴巴集团旨在实现可持续的盈利模式,而并不急于一时。国内网购行业竞争日益激烈,而阿里巴巴管理层的目标是在这一领域最终获得稳固的胜利,而不在于短期的盈利。“他们拥有足够的耐心并制定了长远的规划来实现这一目标。”

近日淘宝网CEO陆兆禧也披露了淘宝网未来五年战略:淘宝网必须在以下三个层面做最大的努力:第一:不断的创造就业机会,第二:通过各种努力,确保淘宝大市场的繁荣与公正,第三:通过大淘宝的战略,不断提升物流的效率。(崔西)


[转] 位置改变一切:“切客”带来的营销新机会

From: http://www.alibuybuy.com/26159.html

位置改变一切:“切客”带来的营销新机会
摘要: “我在美罗城的L’Arbre de Provence解决一个人的晚饭。”在这样一段简短的表述下面,却包含了发布者Cherry的位置信息和地图。近来时尚潮人Cherry越来越喜欢用“玩转四方”的LBS(Location-Based-Service,基...

“我在美罗城的L’Arbre de Provence解决一个人的晚饭。”在这样一段简短的表述下面,却包含了发布者Cherry的位置信息和地图。近来时尚潮人Cherry越来越喜欢用“玩转四方”的LBS(Location-Based-Service,基于位置的服务),在自己所到之处玩“check-in”(编者注:词典释义为到达并登记,最近被中国网民简称为“切客”)。这里不仅可以标示自己的行动轨迹,与朋友分享当时当地的所见所闻,还可以利用手机客户端搜索周边地段的小贴士,寻求饕餮美食和休闲娱乐的好去处。

“这正是国内LBS应用的体验。”上海寰彩网络科技有限公司市场总监西门柳上说。该公司所研发的“玩转四方”软件是国内较早进入LBS应用领域的服务软件。

“星巴克店?珠穆拉玛峰峰顶?上班大楼?所住的小区……把人的行为和地理位置结合,就出现了很多有意思的事情。”中国网库CEO王海波判断,LBS可以分析出一个人的消费习惯、消费水平。个体的消费行为将是企业运用LBS的重要营销依据。而在国际上,Foursquare则是LBS的典范。由于它的成功,CNN更在节目里直言:下一个Twitter是谁?一定是Foursquare。

基于位置的服务,LBS究竟有何新体验?它的营销新机会在哪里?

位置改变一切:

行为轨迹 时间序列 地理的维度

“今天你签到了吗?”这句话俨然变成Cherry和她伙伴新的问候语。而在国内新兴的签到一族被称做“切客”。

“这是一个LBS服务的智能手机服务平台,它鼓励用户一次又一次掏出手机在新旧地点“check in(签到)”,通过增加“签到”的频率,用户可以抢占成为虚拟空间中某个真实地点的“领主”(在Foursquare中,这一封号为“Mayor(市长)”)。通过一次又一次地攻城略地,你可以让自己在朋友圈中显摆一下:去过哪里,在哪里成为了领主。更有机会获得商家所提供的各种优惠促销奖励,同时你也可以与同一地点“签到的切客们交友,一起分享你的攻略、图片。”西门柳上向记者介绍。

而这一切行为的核心就是——你的位置。9月出刊的美国《连线》杂志评论,“数以百万的人行走在一个这样的移动设备上,它整合了互联网的数据,并能告诉用户附近的人或物……简单的说,位置改变一切!”

王海波认为,基于位置改变的LBS可以无限想象。“把人的行为、地理位置再加上时间,可以了解到你的很多信息:例如几点从家里出发;在路上花了多少时间,几点到了公司;几点去餐饮场所吃饭;常去的是哪几家;下班后直接回家,还是喜欢去娱乐场所……这些可以把个体的行为习惯、收入水平、消费习惯、大致路线都能弄清楚。”

虽然已有不少人开始质疑它对个人隐私的渗透程度,但好奇心和好胜心的大胆尝试依旧没有阻挡它的迅速发展。Foursquare 达到100万用户,只用了一年多的时间,增长速度超过了Twitter,而Twitter花了大约两年时间才拥有第100万用户。

当LBS成功得到个人信息的行为轨迹、时间序列、地理的维度时,可以改变的不仅是人的关系链形成,获取信息的方式,更可以使生活更加便利。而这些信息无疑都是商家可利用的巨大商业资源。

商家试水:

LBS所提供的个人爱好,消费水平,消费习惯等个体消费行为都是商家重要的营销数据

王海波这样描述LBS的商业空间:您能找到同一个大楼里QQ好友吗?您能找到和您一样每周都去星巴克喝咖啡的人吗?您能了解每周都去同一个羽毛球馆打球的人吗?您能知道常去的一些消费场所的优惠信息吗?

反过来说:您如果是商家,您知道有哪些人是我的老顾客吗?哪些人喜欢我这个品牌却不知道我的店面在哪儿?怎么向他们推送有效的优惠信息?

LBS将改变这一切。根据最新JiWire的调研报告显示:地图及check in是LBS最受欢迎的使用工具,打折信息、优惠券排名第二。从中便可看出LBS带来的商业价值和用户需求的对接。

协助地区商家推广就是不少商家最看重的LBS的商业价值。林小能最近就在为刚刚完成的张小盒第四季话剧因为成功的利用LBS新移动营销而兴奋。他是张小盒的主要创作者。近来在北京的白领圈流行的游戏就是到写字楼签到,争取赢取张小盒话剧的免费门票。

比如,白领只要在上班时,打开手机上安装的“玩转四方”应用软件,签到盒子之一的office,如“理想国际大厦”、“飞雕国际大厦”、“港汇广场”等写字楼,那么就能获得“人人都是张小盒”的虚拟勋章。当用户签到张小盒话剧上演地——朝阳话剧中心的周边office写字楼时,“玩转四方”就会推送张小盒第四季话剧的相关信息给这些用户。

“这种基于地理位置的定位,让office写字楼工作的白领与张小盒话剧的信息匹配度增高”。林说。

目前国内很多商家也开始纷纷试水。一个奢侈时尚的先锋品牌“上海滩”的官方网站里就特设了一个“City Chic For iPhone”的LBS应用下载版块。当你在上海滩餐厅打开应用记载你的地理位置,签到达到一定数量就有机会享受“City Chic”代金券,获得上海滩限量版产品和独家折扣。而且这个应用除了提供LBS服务,还会有上海滩秀场视频更新、全球专卖店查询等服务。这家店面对高端受众人群的购买习惯和消费心理做了深度的洞察和分析。

协助地区商家推广成为LBS的最大优势。你不必再为原来的繁琐程序而烦恼,比如先要在电脑上使用搜索功能,再一步步的进行范围缩小,找餐馆大约在某个商圈,选择口味、价格、服务等。现在,LBS会主动告诉系统用户你的位置,自动寻找周围200米、1000米处的餐馆。当你在逛ZARA时,手机则会告诉你,LV就在斜对面不足200米处。

利用LBS提升顾客忠诚度也成为不少企业关注的因素。星巴克便是其中之一。5月21日,星巴克宣布将与美国社交定位网站Foursquare合作,推出“市长奖励”计划,公司希望正式通过一次全国范围的“市长奖励”活动,启动了一项实验性的Foursquare忠诚度计划。“市长奖励计划”的机制并不复杂,用户只需进入Foursquare网站建立自己的社区,并在社区中“检入”星巴克咖啡店,如果该用户进入次数最多即可获得该网络社区的“市长”称号,其也可以凭此在星巴克咖啡店购物时享受1美元的折扣奖励。但它更重要的意义在于,帮助商家探索如何借助地理位置,利用共享服务展开营销活动。

“LBS所提供的个人爱好,消费水平,消费习惯等个体消费行为都是商家重要的营销数据。只要LBS平台积累大量用户数据和消费行为数据,很多商家就将找上门来进行合作,不但会为这个平台的用户提供特殊优惠,还将支出相应的广告费用。这个时候,LBS平台将是一个很大的营销平台,改变原来的营销方式。”王海波分析。

据了解,目前国内如“玩转四方”的应用已经遍布iPhone、Android和Symbian三大平台,从“签到”各互动社区,到虚拟勋章、领主、积分等虚拟奖励,再到周边信息搜索、推送,个中手法与Foursquare近乎完全雷同。除此,基于地理位置服务的诸多网站,如街旁、立方网、多乐趣、贝多网等也在陆续出现,并开始紧锣密鼓的备战。

“由于国内智能手机的普及率较低,和已有智能手机的差异比较大,国内的LBS普及还需要时间和市场的发展。”西门柳上说。


[转] 电子商务常识整理

From: http://focusec.cn/?p=1428


这是个人整理出来的电子商务常识,里面有不少知识直接来自上学期我在走秀网实习时的知识。难免浅薄。里面有很多是和网络营销相关的知识,因为电子商务和网络营销联系太密切了。电子商务三流之中的物流和资金流,因为了解还不多,没有把它整理出来。比较有价值的常识在文章后半部,请耐心阅读。

电子商务介绍

概念:电子商务,英文名Electronic Commerce,简称EC。

电子商务模式(常见类):

B2B模式,Business to Business-企业对企业,例子:阿里巴巴,生意宝(网盛科技)、慧聪网。

B2C模式,Business to Customer-企业对个人,例子:亚马逊,当当,凡客,时尚起义,走秀网。

C2C模式,Customer to Customer-个人对个人,例子:ebay,淘宝,拍拍,易趣。

电子商务专业名词(常见类):

SEM:Search Engine Marketing的缩写,意即搜索引擎营销。

EDM:Electronic Direct Marketing的缩写,就是电子邮件营销。

CPS:Cost Per Sales的缩写,即销售分成。

CPA : Cost Per Action,每次动作成本,即根据每个访问者对网络广告所采取的行动收费的定价模式。对于用户行动有特别的定义,包括形成一次交易、获得一个注册用户、或者对网络广告的一次点击等。

CPM:(Cost Per Mille,或者Cost Per Thousand;Cost Per Impressions) 每千人成本。

CPC:(Cost Per Click;Cost Per Thousand Click-Through) 每点击成本。

ROI:Return On Investment的缩写,投资报酬率。

SEO:Search Engine Optimization的缩写,搜索引擎优化。

转化率:Conversion Rate的缩写,是指访问某一网站访客中,转化的访客占全部访客的比例。

UV:Unique Vister的缩写,独立访客。

AdWords:Google的关键词竞价广告。

Alexa:Alexa.com是专门发布网站世界排名的网站,网站排名有两种:综合排名和分类排名

二跳率:二跳率,由99click最先提出,网站页面展开后,用户在页面上产生的首次点击被称为 “二跳”,二跳的次数即为”二跳量”。二跳量与浏览量的比值称为页面的二跳率。

跳出率:跳出率是指浏览了一个页面就离开的用户占一组页面或一个页面访问次数的百分比。

人均访问页面: PV总和除以IP,即可获得每个人平均访问的页面数量。至少人均访问页面需要超过10个以上,才算是优质的用户。

电子商务商务常见营销方式:

1.网络媒体:门户网站广告,客户端软件广告。

2.SEM:竞价排名,联盟广告。

3.EDM邮件营销:内部邮件群发,第三方平台,数据库整合营销等方式。

4.社区营销:BBS推广(发帖和活动)SNS。

5.CPS\代销:销售分成(一起发,成果网,创盟)。

6.SEO:搜索引擎优化。

7.积分营销:积分兑换,积分打折,积分购买等。

8.DM目录:传统单张目录,如麦考林,红孩子,凡客,PPG。

9.线下活动:会展,体验店等。

10.传统媒体:电视电台,报刊杂志。

网络营销主要机构:

3大在线媒体广告代理服务商:好耶,华扬联众,龙拓。

3大在线营销创意服务商:奥美互动,阳狮互动Digitas,安瑞索思。

3大网络联盟广告服务商:亿码(一起发),linkTech,alimama。

3大小企业的基础性在线营销服务商:中企动力,上海火速,深圳时代赢客。

3大网络公关公司:蓝色光标,宣亚公关,新华美通。

3大SEO服务商:王通,点石团队,新竞争力。

3大营销2.0机构:陈格雷,陈墨网络推广机构,浪兄推广机构。

用数字衡量网络营销效果:

--网络营销效果可以100%以数字来衡量

1.访问页面:网络推广的访问者访问 5个页面以上才是有效流量。访问10个页面以上是高质量的流量,访问2个以下页面是垃圾流量。

2.停留时间:超过3分钟才是有效流量;超过6分钟是高质量流量;小于1分钟的是垃圾流量。

3.二跳率数据:推广来主页二跳率70%以上是高质量流量。

4.转化率数据:推广购买转化率为1%以上为高质量流量。

网络营销需要辩别好:真实流量与流量,有效流量与流量,自然流量与购买流量,PV高的流量与PV低的流量,商业流量与娱乐流量。

如何用数字判断一个网站:

1.访问量:alexa,chinaz查询工具。

2.网络流行度:搜索网站名,搜索结果越多相对来说越流行。

3.行业排名:查询艾瑞的排名。

4.网络新闻曝光率:用baidu新闻搜索。

5.SEO表现:收录与PR,排名。

6.百度指数:百度指数是用以反映关键词在过去30天内的网络曝光率及用户关注度。

7.每天新增注册用户数=UV*1%=80000*1%=80

8.活跃用户=注册用户/10=100000*10%=10000

9.最高同时在线=活跃用户*20%=10000*20%=2000

10.收费交易客户数=活跃用户*5%=10000*5%=500

11.销售额:收费交易客户数*商品平均价格200=10000

按照以上方法看不到对方内部数据也能大致判断这个网站很多数据。


[转] The vision of Web3.0

From: http://www.williamlong.info/archives/2373.html

在Google 的搜索框里面输入web 3.0,一共出现了170,000,000 条搜索结果。这显示了Google强大的搜索能力,但其实对我没有什么实质性帮助。搜索结果出来以后,我还得老老实实的一页一页一条一条的打开网页来检查这是不是我想要的内容。尽管Google能给出数量庞大的搜索结果,可是所有用户都肯定有过这个感觉,那就是其中充斥了大部分大量的无用信息。

  以下是这次搜索的其中一个页面,它出现在第一页的最后一个结果,那就是维基百科给出的web 3.0的定义:“Web 3.0一词包含多层含义,用来概括互联网发展过程中可能出现的各种不同的方向和特征,包括将互联网本身转化为一个泛型数据库;跨浏览器、超浏览器的内容投递和请求机制;人工智能技术的运用;语义网;地理映射网;运用3D技术搭建的网站甚至虚拟世界或网络公国等。”

  Web 3.0就是为了解决搜索效率这样的问题应运而生的。

  技术3.0

  web3.0涉及到一个名词:语义网。这是个web3.0里最核心的一个概念。如果直接把web3.0比作语义网,那web1.0和2.0都应该称为语法网。Web3.0要解决的一个最重要的问题就是要使计算机能理解到人们能理解的内容。这似乎也是人工智能的方向。现在的互联网传输的大部分都是html的文件,在语义网的时代到来之前计算机能看到的理解的也只是固有的数量有限的标签语法,它不明白标签里内容的意义。在未来,我们需要计算机能更加智能的解释其中的含义,使得google在搜索的过程中就可以为用户过滤掉无用的信息。

  为了完成这样的需求,于是我们需要给网页的内容贴上标签。这样的标签如同数据表上的属性,为网络上的其他应用提供的内容上的索引。这就将整个网络的内容结构化了,产生了一个遍布全球的庞大的数据库。这就是泛型数据库的概念。

  但是,正如普通的数据库需要sql一样,互联网数据库也一样需要一种查询语言来获取它的内容。于是有了RDF,它的全称是“资源描述框架”。它提供了一套标准化的查询语言和应用程序接口。类似的网络数据格式,还有xml和rss。

  依赖于这样的一个泛型数据库和通用的数据格式,网络应用就能获取彼此的信息。

  显示3.0

  从web1.0到web2.0,产生质变的不仅仅是内容产生的方式。伴随ajax技术的不断完善和发展,它同时也极大的改善了用户体验。但是在3.0的时代,前端的显示可能是颠覆性的。它将以3D的方式将内容呈现在用户的面前,这样飞跃式的进步已经不仅仅是改变用户体验了,可以说是从根本上改变了人机交互的形式了。

  当然了,即使是现在我们要体验3D效果都必须戴上特制的眼镜。在出售显示器的时候配送一幅这样的眼镜不是一个好主意。3.0必须以全新的方式来显示内容。

  用户3.0

  我们都知道web2.0的产品具有社会媒体的属性,虽然依赖于互联网平台。然而更多未经过滤的真实的信息更广更迅速的传递到世界上各个地方去。在中国,4亿双摄像镜头覆盖着社会的各个角落,极大的影响着社会的发展。可以说,web2.0造就了草根文化。但是它的影响也更多的集中在文化层面。

  可以预见到,3.0的用户将拥有更强大的影响力,经济、政治等都将来到3.0时代。在过去电子商务曾经遭遇过严重的打击,但是发展到现在,它已经成为人类生活中不可缺少的元素。但是在3.0时代,我们讨论的不是在淘宝网上开网店赚取利润,而是用户在发布信息的同时可以获取劳动的报酬,达到全民营销的新模式。

  操作系统3.0

  网络操作系统得益于近年来浏览器的快速发展,各大IT浏览为提高javascript运行速率而作出了不懈的努力。Google为了要响应web os的潮流,很早就开发出了chrome为未来的产品埋下了伏笔。而就在最近,腾讯上线了新的产品,属于腾讯自己的web os,它高度集成了腾讯的其他副产品。至此,所谓的B/S系统才真正的应用到了软件产品中。总有一天,网络应用程序可以代替掉桌面应用程序。可以设想,未来的PC只需要一台显示器就足以完成用户的所有需求。

  而由于虽然web os 的概念已经不新,但是现时国内这样的产品不多,应用程序屈指可数。所有的用户都只是在浏览器操作数据,而不是应用程序。Web3.0允许用户定制自己的应用程序,而这些应用程序理所当然也是接入到上文所提到的泛型数据库和统一数据格式中的。

  Web3.0和移动网络

  讨论web3.0,我们不能忽略掉移动网络。因为当我们还在脑海里设想web3.0的蓝图的时候,3G已经在我们的生活大行其道了。而随着越来越多移动产品的发布,web3.0搭载着移动网络,信息的发布会变得更加快速,资讯的时效性会越来越强,经济活动会进行得更加的得心应手和高效率。

  现时的移动设备已经越来越接近PC机的处理能力了,而体积更小。技术上只需要程序员在开发移动应用的时候遵守web3.0的应用规范就可以了,而web os的出现更是为处理能力较弱的设备铺好了桥搭好了路。


Situation in China Shopping Sites


2010年8月购物网站排名, 日均覆盖人数(万人)
2010年购物网站排名,意味着传统的B2C网站在不进则退

2009年8月购物网站排名, 日均覆盖人数(万人)

2010年购物网站排名,意味着传统的B2C网站在不进则退

(2010 iResearch Data)

2010年10月15日金曜日

转:UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven (数据启发 而非 数据驱动)

首先说明我的个人看法: 敏锐的感觉(insight)和决策力是战略性的,战术上和执行上数据还是第一(Data is first)。

From: http://www.uxweek.com/pages/49089

演讲下载的URL: http://www.uxweek.com/pages/49089

演讲录像的文字版:
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven
Adam Mosseri
Page 1 of 12

My name is Adam Mosseri. I've been a product designer at Facebook for
about two years
now, and today I'd like to talk about how we at Facebook use data to
inform certain types
of decisions, but how we also are very skeptical of being overly data
driven. This is all
really about decision making and what informs our decisions, so I'd
like to start quickly
by talking about who makes the decisions.
It's important to understand that, at Facebook, we believe in
particularly small teams.
Most projects are about six or seven total. We believe in small teams
because we believe
they are more efficient, and speed is something that's incredibly
important to us. It's also
important to note that decisions are made by those teams.
I'm also a manager. I manage about nine product designers at Facebook.
I don't approve
any of their work. I give them feedback, and participate in feedback
systems, so they get
feedback from other designers as well. But teams, like a Photos team,
for instance, will
make a decision about the Photos product, pending only Mark Zuckerberg
our CEO's
approval, so it's a pretty flat decision-making structure. So I'm
gonna walk you quickly
through our team structure.
There's always a designer. This is Francis. How many of you guys are
designers here?
I'm sort of curious. Okay, so a bunch, nice. Product designers at
Facebook are
responsible for visual design, for interaction design, also for what
we call product design,
which is essentially product strategy, and we even do some front-end
implementation as
well.
There's almost always also a researcher. This is Gabe. Gabe loves Post-
Its, so I wanted
to show this. Do we have a lot of researchers? Not a lot of
researchers. Interesting. A
couple over there.
This wasn't the case two years ago when I started at Facebook.
Researchers were
involved in some projects, only the biggest, but not a lot of them.
But over the past two
years, I've seen us sort of grow to accept the importance of both
qualitative and
quantitative research, so this is now sort of an integral part of our
team.
We also have an engineer, usually between one and four. This is Ola.
He's actually our
most prolific engineer in the entire company, despite the blanket. But
you don't have a
lot of engineers, I don't think.
And then product managers. This is Blake. Blake is actually a director
of product at
Facebook. Product managers at Facebook are responsible not just for
project managing,
not just for making sure things ship on time, that everybody has what
they need, but also
for the quality of the product. They're sort of like mini-CEOs within
their projects
usually.
And, again, like I said, just so you know where I'm coming from, I'm a
designer first and
foremost. My main interest is in ensuring a certain quality of
experience. But today
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 2 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 2 of 12
we're gonna talk about how these teams use data, and I'll stop at
talking about the ways
we do.
And we do use data. We value it. We store an incredible amount of
data. We have
about 20 people on the data team: 10 engineers, 10 data scientists. We
record about four
terabytes of data a day. We invested a lot in the technology to store
and query all this
data. We have, I believe, about ten petabytes' worth of storage, which
is an incredible
amount. And we believe it's important, but we use it in sort of
certain particular ways.
And the first way I'd like to talk about today is how we use it to
sort of optimize usually
workflows or interactions.
Data helps us understand how users use the product, which then in turn
helps us
understand how to optimize the product. And the most tangible and
recent example I
could think of for today was photo uploading. I've been working on
photos for the past
few months, and we recently, about two months ago, replaced our photo
uploader. To
give you a sense of scale, about – I believe it's – over 200 million
photos are uploaded a
day, and a few weeks ago we hit 50 billion photos in the system.
That's a ton of photos.
But we thought we could do better; we thought there were problems.
Actually, this is
pretty interesting. How many of you guys use Facebook? Nice. How many
of you guys
have struggled uploading photos to Facebook? Yeah, that's about a
third of you. So it's
pretty bad considering we're, I believe, the largest photo site on the
Web.
So we started with a hypothesis, as we usually do. The way we use data
can generally be
divided into two areas. There's hypothesis generation. And that
usually includes sort of
exploratory data analysis: we believe it's difficult to upload photos.
And then there's
hypothesis evaluation: iteration, testing, and that sort of thing.
So the hypothesis was quite simple in this case. It was that users
were having trouble
uploading photos. We knew this anecdotally, from our own experiences,
but also
because, as you can imagine, any time a friend, a relative, a loved
one has trouble
uploading photos, they call us personally.
So I'll walk you quickly through the current upload flow on the site.
You start on the
Photos dashboard. This is what we call the dashboard. It's on the
homepage. You can
also get here through the composer or the profile, and you click on
Upload Photos on the
top right of the page. You then get a form that asks you for some
information about the
album. You fill out some information; you say where it is or what it
was about. You
describe it.
And then you get to this page, which is sort of the start of the
problem. This page has too
many actions. First you select photos, and then you upload 'em. So you
click Select
Photos, then you get an OS dialogue, or an operating system dialogue,
that allows you to
select files. You select them. You hit okay. And then it tells you
you've selected six.
You can change your selection. Then you click Upload, and hopefully
you wait patiently
as it compresses and uploads your photos to Facebook. So this is a lot
of steps.
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 3 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 3 of 12
Putting this presentation together was sort of – felt sort of like
airing our dirty laundry.
So a few months ago we decided to do a waterfall analysis of the photo-
uploading
experience. A waterfall analysis is simply taking a look at each step
in a flow and seeing
what happens.
So of users per session who try to upload photos now, only 87 percent
reach what we call
the ready state – that means that page you saw where it says Select
Photos, Upload
Photos – and everything's working. We lose some people to – some
people decide not to
upload photos 'cause the page takes too long to load. Some people
don't have the most
recent version of Flash, and we're currently using Flash for photo
uploading. So we lose
a bunch of people right off the bat. This is actually pretty bad.
Only 57 percent of users actually select photos. In this case,
selecting photos means not
only clicking Select Photos but also finding some files and
successfully selecting them.
Fifty-two percent actually upload photos, so that's click the Upload
button, 'cause you can
change your selection. And then 48 percent are actually successful. We
lose 4 percent to
poor load times, bugs, etc. It's pretty bad, but it's actually
significantly better than where
we were.
If you look over the past two months, you can see the photo success
rate has increased
from 34 percent to the mid-40s. Now, this was a new Flash uploader.
I'll talk about the
old Flash – I mean a new photo uploader, and I'll talk about the old
photo uploader in a
little bit. But we're continuously iterating on it, removing bugs,
removing pain points,
removing steps, etc. And we watch this – this is sort of data driven.
This is one of the
types of products that are data driven.
But I wanted to dive into one specific change we made. We found that
85 percent of
users, when we first launched this, were selecting only one photo for
an album, which is
clearly not ideal for us or for them. And we wanted to figure out why,
so we took a look
at the UI that users used to select photos, and they use this.
This is called an operating system file selector. We don't actually
have control over this
interface. This is the Mac OS version; there's a Windows version as
well. But it's very
difficult here to select multiple files. You have to click on one and
hold Option or Shift
and then click on another, and this proved to be very difficult for
the vast majority of our
users.
So we did what we don't like to do: we added another step. After you
click Select
Photos, we gave a little – we showed you a little tip that said "You
can select multiple
photos; this is how you do it." There was a little bit of friction,
but we believed it was
important, 'cause clearly a lot of people were struggling.
This resulted in a drop on the number of people who were uploading
only one photo,
from 85 percent to 40 percent, which was huge. We also only show you
this dialogue
until you successfully select two, and then we never show it to you
again. This meant
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 4 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 4 of 12
that photos – per attempt. This 90 percent success, this is per
attempt, increased from 3
to 11, which is a big win for us.
This graph is actually interesting. This is photos per upload attempt,
and you can see that
– this is over two months. You can see there's about eight spikes.
Does anybody have
any idea why there's spikes? What was that, weekends? Sundays. People
upload photos
of their interesting weekends on Sundays. We see really interesting
patterns in the data
all the time. It's about 150 percent of the average, every Sunday. So
this was an example
of how we use data to sort of optimize a workflow. We're very
comfortable doing this.
Another type of way we use data which is significantly different is to
sanity check
decisions we make for non-data reasons. So it's a little bit
complicated, but we do things
for all sorts of reasons, and we have key metrics that are very
important to us. And so we
generally sanity check our changes with it, by running A/B tests. At
our size, we can
launch a product to a small percentage of users, like half a percent,
and get statistically
relevant data very quickly, which is really just sort of convenient.
So I wanna talk specifically about what we call the composer. The
composer is what we
call internally the "What's on your mind?" input field that you see at
the top of your
homepage, right above the News Feed. I'll try to show it to you here.
This is the way
that most – not most users. This is the way that a lot of users update
their status. But
once you click on it, you get a few other options: add a photo, post a
link – what was the
other one? Oh, add a video, etc.
But recently, we've started to roll out our Questions product. I think
we've finished
rolling out in the U.S. Do you guys all have the Questions product?
Yes, no, maybe?
Well, anyway, for Questions, it was important for us to surface a
really easy way for you
to just ask a question on the homepage, and this "What's on your
mind?" input field
wasn't gonna cut it. It didn't really afford us that sort of
flexibility.
So we wanted to test moving the composer to more of a selection-based
model, so we
tested a couple options. We tested a version that was just four links
across the top, so we
could add an "ask a question" link. We were worried, though, that this
would decrease
the number of status updates, because the relative prominence of
statuses is less here.
And it did; it decreased status updates by about 1 percent.
We also tested a version here where we tried to incentivize users to
update their status by
showing them their most recent status. The idea would be that stale
content would
motivate you to upload – to update your status. And it worked
marginally. It was about a
.5 percent increase in status updates. That wasn't actually
statistically significant, but we
saw it in the data.
And then we tested a big option. We always test the big option. This
was links and an
input field. This resulted in a 2 percent increase in status updates
and a 2 percent increase
in photo uploads. But the real – the truth at the end of the day and
what we were actually
hoping for – and we actually ran around eight different versions, not
just three that I
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 5 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 5 of 12
showed you here – was that none of these really significantly moved
our key metrics,
which was what we really wanted, actually. We wanted to make sure that
we could go
with the UI that we thought was the best, and so we went with the
simple one, 'cause the
homepage is very complicated; I'd argue it's significantly too
complicated. It's very
important that News Feed is high up on the page, so we went with the
simplest, lightest
version. This is actually a pretty recent example. This is – I'm not
even sure if it's fully
rolled out.
And the third way I wanna talk about how we do use data, and
comfortably, is to evaluate
retroactively projects. This usually is for small projects. I'm gonna
talk a bit about the
deactivation page. The deactivation page is the page you get when you
decide to leave
Facebook, which we find sad. And Lee Byron, a designer at Facebook,
actually
spearheaded this project. It was his idea. He designed it; he built
it; he ran the tests; and
he shipped it.
And the idea was that the current version of the deactivation page –
this was in mid-2008
– was just a form. We wanted to know why you were leaving, but we
didn't ask you to
stay. We didn't give you a reason to stay. So he thought about being
somewhat
emotionally manipulative, and he did this.
[Audience laughter]
As you can see, it says – there's a picture of my friend Aaron, and it
says, "Aaron will
miss you," and then Kevin, and "Kevin will also miss you"; "Send Wayne
a message."
To just hit that emotional chord, to give you a reason to stay, to
make you feel guilty
about leaving. And it was wildly successful. It reduced deactivations
by 7 percent.
Seven percent at this point is millions and millions of users still on
Facebook, 'cause this
was a year and a half ago and when we were about 70 million users.
And so this project was entirely data driven, but it was in sort of a
mid-size project. This
wasn't a homepage redesign or a new version of Photos or a new version
of Groups, and
so we're comfortable with it in these areas.
But I think it's fair to say that, at Facebook, in product – we call
product "product
management and product design" – that there's a healthy skepticism of
being overly data
driven, maybe even too much so. But I thought a lot about this for
this presentation, and
I tried to articulate why: why we're really so skeptical of overusing
data.
And the most straightforward reason I could think of was that it's
very difficult for a set
of metrics to fully represent what you value. There are a lot of
factors that go into
making any sort of product decision, as I'm sure you guys all know.
Quantitative data is one. We use it, as I've showed you over the past
three examples.
Qualitative data is another. Our researchers run qualitative tests all
the time. We have a
usability lab; an eye tracker, which is pretty amazing, actually, if
you ever get the chance
to use one; etc.
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 6 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 6 of 12
Strategic interests are another factor we use in making decisions, as
I talked about with
the Questions product. User interests are another: what people
complain about, what can
people ask for.
Network interests, which are actually significantly different.
Competition clearly factors
into our decision making. Regulatory bodies at this point. At our
scale, we have to deal
with privacy advocacy groups. The European Union had a lot to say
about Questions –
oh, no, sorry, about Places. So we deal with them, and we looped 'em
in on decisions.
And business interests. This is actually, on purpose, small because
explicitly we value
revenue generation right now less than growth and engagement, growth
being defined as
how many users come onto the site, engagement being defined as how
often users use the
site. So these are all important factors that we use in making our
decisions.
And so this is sort of implicitly understood at Facebook, and every
once in a while we
experiment with something that's a little bit maybe too data driven,
I'd say. So I'd like to
talk about a pretty recent example, which we called internally the
engagement team.
We've gotten away with a lot of designing for ourselves over the past
six years. And
recently we've decided to really invest in trying to understand why
users use the product
as much as they do and how to sort of motivate them or to persuade
them to use it more.
So we created a team we called the engagement team, which was tasked
with
understanding engagement and increasing it significantly, but also
with quantifying it,
which was sort of the dangerous piece.
And our first attempt at quantifying engagement was RAW, reads and
writes. So what do
I mean by that? We talk a lot about the social graph internally and
externally. The social
graph is the digital representation on Facebook of real-world
entities. Your relationship
with a friend, we call a friendship. You going to a party, we call a –
you are RSVPing to
an event. Your football team is a group. And we believe that – or we
talk about that the
social graph is just objects and connections between objects within
the system that
represent real-life entities. And we talked about what reads and
writes are. Reads are
creations of either objects or connections between objects – sorry,
writes. And what
reads are, are what they sound like: reads of that information.
And so we just decided to treat all writes equal and all reads equal,
and start to try to
optimize for that. We did this over the past few months, and we ended
up with products
like comment liking. Comment liking is what it sounds like. We
produced – we put the
product that allowed you to quickly and easily like a comment. Here,
Saleo said, "Fine,"
and for some reason I liked it. This, actually, biometric was wildly
successful. It
produced an 11 percent, I believe, increase in likes throughout the
entire system. This is
really good for our metric goals.
But there was sort of a feeling within the team or within the company
that this really
might not be the best thing to optimize for. We sort of got what we
asked for. This type
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 7 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 7 of 12
of write, the fact that you like the comment, is explicitly or
obviously less valuable than
you telling us that you had a baby or that you switched jobs or that
you moved
companies. So clearly, all writes weren't created equal, and we
started to struggle with
this.
We also started to struggle with what we found ourselves optimizing
for. We found that
85 percent of the content in the system was generated by users who log
in more than 25
days a month. That's a lot of users – or, sorry, a lot of days. That's
actually around 20
percent of users in the system.
But we realized that if we start optimizing for this percentage, for
these heavy users, for
these power users, that'll be invariably at the expense of our more
casual users. Casual
users are important to us too; some of 'em become heavy users. There's
no reason why
you can't log into Facebook once a week instead of 25 days a month.
And we realized
that we were over-optimizing for a small user segment at the expense
of the rest.
So what we're doing – and I actually have a brainstorm today back at
the office – is trying
to reevaluate this metric. We created this team; we're committed to
understanding
engagement, but clearly the metric-driven approach isn't working for
us, and specifically
that metric is poor.
So another reason why – to move on – why we are skeptical of data-
driven design is that
we find that overreacting to data often leads to what we call micro-
optimizations. A
micro-optimization is when one interest over-optimizes for itself at
the expense of
another, and this is a very difficult thing for us as we scale.
As we scale, a division of labor becomes invariably sort of more
intense, and you have
different people representing different interests. We have a Photos
team; we have a
growth team; we have an engagement team; we have a News Feed team,
etc. And all of
these teams optimize in good faith for their own interests. But
sometimes these interests
can be sort of opposing or distracting from each other, and sometimes
you can get lost in
the specifics of a decision and sort of miss what we think of as the
big picture.
So I'm gonna give you an example of something that launched that was
core to our
product for a long time, that I think was a poor decision. And it's
what I call the
application menu, or we called internally the application menu.
This was the site in early 2008, and the navigation was on the left.
That's how you
navigated to what we call applications. Applications are photos,
groups, events, notes,
but also platform applications – PackRat, Mafia Wars, FrontierVille,
etc.
And we redesigned the whole site – right when I started at Facebook,
actually – with the
idea that we wanted to move the navigation to the top, explode the
frame, and allow
content on the site to sort of thrive. The application menu moved from
being a list on the
left to a dropdown at the top of the page. And this resulted in a
significant decrease in
traffic to applications, and this was a big problem for developers.
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 8 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 8 of 12
So we were committed to this though, so we started to explore how can
we increase the
prominence. So we moved it to the bottom of the page, as you can see
it here. Not
particularly prominent, but it increased traffic significantly. We
even tried the "big blue
button" approach. This resulted in a 5x increase in traffic, but we
all hated it, so we
actually didn't launch this, so maybe we didn't do as poorly as we
could've done.
But what we were doing here is we were optimizing for a local maximum.
Within this
framework, there was only so much traffic we could funnel to
applications. And what we
needed was a structural change. Our premise was sort of off. Our
interests were
basically leading us down the wrong path, and we didn't realize it,
and we launched this.
This existed on the site for a year. But it did spawn a few of the
conversations about
navigation and how navigation should operate and persistence and about
platform
navigation versus internal navigation. And it ended up resulting in a
team that designed
this, which is the current crumb – what we call the crumb – the
current navigation of the
site, which was sort of a half-step backwards, to a left nav with a
wider frame and a bit of
a more flexible system.
So we were optimizing for something locally, and we needed to be
somewhat disruptive
to sort of get out of it. And this resulted in an increase in
application traffic, but this was
about a year later.
Another example of a local optimization – or a local maximum where we
got lost chasing
a local maximum is the old photo uploader, the one that existed
temporarily, briefly
before the one I showed you, and it looked like this. And this photo
uploader was
awesome.
Basically, within the context of Facebook, we allowed you to browse
your file system,
see thumbnails of photos, and select what you like. You could select
photos from
different folders. You could click Upload, and you can continue to
navigate the site
while it was uploading. It was a really great experience.
But the problem was, to enable this, to give us access to the file
system, we had to build a
browser plug-in, a downloadable – something you had to download and
execute. In
Safari it looked like this. You got a very scary warning that said,
"An applet from
Facebook is requesting access to your computer." It was actually much
worse in IE. In
Internet Explorer, you got an ActiveX control. If any of you have seen
that, it's a 11-
pixel, tiny yellow thing across the top of the page you're supposed to
find. In certain
browsers, you had to download and install something. A lot of users
actually don't
understand the difference.
And we did a waterfall analysis, and we found that, out of the roughly
1.2 million people
a day that we asked to install the uploader, only 37 percent even
tried to. That means that
63 percent said, "Piss off," like "This sounds like – this is either
spam," or "I don't trust
you," or "I don't know what this is," or "I don't understand," or "I
got lost somewhere in
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 9 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 9 of 12
the process," and they didn't even try. And only 23 percent were
actually successful.
This is abysmal.
Twenty-three percent is a little bit misleading. Out of the 1.2
million who tried to install,
there was another 600,000 that already had it installed. So the
overall success rate was
around 40, 45 percent, which is about where we've gotten recently, if
you remember this
slide from earlier.
But what we needed to do was start over, really. We had reached our
local maximum,
which was around 40 percent, 45 percent. We had been optimizing for
months. We had
made substantial gains, but we had plateaued, and what we needed is to
move to a
completely new uploader. And we've reached our previous performance,
and we're still
on an upward trajectory 'cause it's still a new project.
But this is somewhat disruptive, which leads nicely I think into my
last point, which is
why – or my last reason why we're pretty wary of being data driven,
which is that we
really believe – and this is a little bit controversial – that real
innovation invariably
involves disruption. And disruption is usually – involves a dip in
metrics.
And this is core to our sort of culture. It's core to our product
beliefs. It's one of the main
reasons why I joined Facebook. I joined in 2008, but I started to try
to join in 2007
because I saw News Feed, and News Feed was an example of a project
that was executed
in lieu of, in spite of, or just oblivious to data.
Does anybody remember this version of the site? This is pretty
awesome.
[Audience laughter]
This is Ezra. Ezra was actually employee No. 6 at Facebook. This is
what it looked like.
And the way people used this site back then is they navigated from
profile to profile,
essentially trolling for interesting information. And we had – we knew
that this wasn't
ideal. It was actually good for the standard metrics at the time for
engagement, i.e., page
views. People loaded a lot of pages in search of something
interesting.
But we thought we could do better. We thought we could surface what
was interesting to
you right there on the homepage, create a custom social newspaper for
you, and we called
it News Feed internally but – yeah, both internally and externally.
And it looked like this
when we first launched it.
And this, if you remember, had a massive backlash. Users hated us. We
got a ton of bad
press. This is one of my favorite quotes: "Generation Facebook is
taking action – against
Facebook" – Time magazine. TechCrunch hit us. There has been an
overwhelmingly
negative public response to Facebook's launch of two new products. The
two new
products were News Feed and Mini-Feed, which is your feed on your
profile.
But we stuck to it. We believed in it. We added some privacy settings.
Mark wrote a
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 10 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 10 of 12
letter to the entire user base about – explaining what we were doing
and why. And
eventually it ended up becoming the primary driver of traffic and
engagement on the site.
It is probably our greatest success story.
But I think it's only fair, if I'm talking about bold moves in spite
of data that were
successful, is to acknowledge some of our failures.
Beacon was a project where the basic idea was that Facebook shouldn't
just be about
what happens on Facebook. When you go to Facebook, you should see what
your friends
are doing all over the world. And the way that manifested was that we
would allow thirdparty
sites – that is, sites that are not Facebook – to funnel your activity
back to
Facebook. So if you created a review on Yelp, it would come back to
Facebook. If you
wrote a review on Rotten Tomatoes, it would come back to Facebook. And
it looked
somewhat like this. Basically, in your News Feed at the top of your
homepage, we threw
those stories. We created stories about things you were doing off of
Facebook.
But we did this – it was opt-out. We did this implicitly. And the
classic terrible story
was when Christmas was coming up, and you bought your girlfriend a
nice bag on
Amazon. And then she logged into Facebook, and she saw that you bought
a nice bag on
Amazon, and either you had spoiled Christmas by letting her know what
she got
beforehand or she found out that you were buying a bag for somebody
else, and this was
just terrible. It blew up, and we tried to stick to our guns, and
eventually we had to sort
of roll back and make it opt-in – yeah, make it opt-in.
And it's a pain point. It's actually difficult for us to talk about.
But I wanna acknowledge
it. It's real. Along with trying to innovate and trying to make bold
moves comes – you
run the risk of failure, and you have to just understand failure,
acknowledge it, and move
on.
A couple other projects that were made sort of in spite of data or in
lieu of data were
homepage redesigns. We've done this a number of times. I've actually
worked on the
last two, so if you hate them, you can e-mail me later.
This was the homepage in 2009. This was March of 2009 we launched
this. This had
nothing to do with data. The idea here was that we wanted to make the
News Feed
entirely about what your friends were saying. So instead of
algorithmically deciding
what we thought was interesting, we showed you everything your friends
were saying:
the photos they were posting, the status updates they were writing,
etc.
It being all-inclusive also meant that we sort of were focusing on
recency and voice. We
didn't say what your friends were doing, so if your friend RSVP'd to
an event, we didn't
tell you; if your friend joined a group, we didn't tell you. But if
your friend posted a
status, we told you. So the idea was the focus on voice, the focus on
recency – 'cause it
updated in real time 'cause it was all-inclusive – and to focus on
simplicity, determinism.
You knew how News Feed worked.
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 11 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 11 of 12
It did increase comments significantly, and it did tank wall posts
significantly, but we
were gonna go forward with this no matter what, 'cause we believed in
it for strategic
reasons.
Another one – homepage redesign which we talked about briefly was this
one, which was
about improving and simplifying the navigation on the site. Instead of
the way – the way
before this to get to photos was you had to find a 16-by-16-pixel icon
in the bottom left of
the screen in a gray bar, which was very difficult for a lot of users,
and we knew this was
wrong. This resulted in an increase in traffic to applications, but we
were gonna move
forward with this.
But I do wanna take a moment to acknowledge that when you make these
big changes,
when you don't take baby steps – and I actually do believe in baby
steps – there's a cost.
There's a very real cost.
This is a real group on Facebook called "I automatically hate the new
Facebook
homepage."
[Audience laughter]
This is awesome. This is, like, my favorite group. There's over 23,000
members, and
some of the hate groups had millions of members. Sometimes it was –
you would have a
hate group about one homepage redesign that would then exist until
another homepage
redesign, and people would join that, at which point you had people
who were hating on
both, and so you wanted to go to one or the other. It gets really
complicated. But it's
real, and we need to understand it, and we need to be somewhat
sympathetic.
The way I think about it is that the average user who logs into
Facebook today will spend
about 46 minutes on Facebook. That's crazy. That's a lot of time. Now,
if you spent 45
minutes every night at your desk organizing your photos, writing
letters to your friends,
doing your thing, your social sort of activity, and then I came by
with no provocation,
with no heads-up, and I just rearranged your desk for you, you're
gonna be pissed. It's
gonna happen. I'm messing with your desk. That's real. That's a real
sense of
entitlement, and it's – you can argue with it all you like, but the
truth is we need to
understand that.
So moving forward, we need to understand how to message our
motivations behind our
major decisions better by explaining value add to users better.
There's clearly a lot of
room for improvement. But I do believe that you'll see us continue to
make big changes
that you'll be like, "How is this good for data?" or "How is this good
for anybody?" but
there's a reason behind it. Usually it's either because we believe
that this is where the
market is going, or it enables a product that's gonna come later, or
we're worried about
being stagnant and we wanna continually innovate.
UX Week 2010 Adam Mosseri Data Informed, Not Data Driven Page 12 of 12
Adam Mosseri
www.verbalink.com Page 12 of 12
For us, the greatest risk is really taking no risk at all. That's why
I'm at the company.
That is, like, pervasive from Mark, all the way down through to all of
engineering, all of
product, etc. And I believe in this. I really, really do.
That doesn't mean we can't do better. That doesn't mean I'm not
pushing for us to do
better. But it means that at the end of the day we make decisions
based on common
sense, on interests, on strategic interests. And we use data. We
acknowledge it's
important, but it's really just a small piece of the pie.
So that's actually all I have today. Again, my name is Adam Mosseri.
My e-mail is
Mosseri at Facebook. If you liked this or you thought I'm totally off
base, I'm really
actually open to feedback. But thanks for your time.
[End of Audio]

简单地用中文总结要点如下:

1. Facebook特别信任产品设计团队

“ It's important to understand that, at Facebook, we believe in
particularly small teams. ”

这就如同Scrum开发模式。5,6个人的开发团队往往是思维活跃,易协作,高效率,且易管理的项目组织结构。
团队中一位team leader(project leader),一位BA/IA,三位工程师。当然外部还是需要一个engineer manager来进行组织方面的支持和管理。

2. 数据帮助我们了解用户如何使用我们的产品,我们因此懂得如何优化我们的产品。

“ Data helps us understand how users use the product, which then in
turn helps us understand how to optimize the product. ”

Facebook庞大的用户访问和交互行为为它带来了海量的用户行为日志数据,分析这些数据,找到改进方案,再结合A/B测试,为不断地优化用户界面和交互提供了基础和方法。

3. Facebook认为产品是产品管理和产品设计组成的,这其中就包含了秉持怀疑的态度来防止过度地数据驱动。

“…at Facebook, in product – we call product "product management and
product design" – that there's a healthy skepticism of being overly
data driven ”

演讲者提到数据怀疑论的三个原因:

一组数据指标很难完整地代表你所重视的价值

影响产品决策的因素很多,除了定量数据,还有定性数据。Facebook的用户研究员会做大量定性研究,如可用性测试、眼动测试等。另外还有战略因素,
用户需求,竞争产品,商业利益因素。

过度依赖于数据,可能导致“微优化”或“局部最大化”
对数据的变化过度敏感,可能导致所谓的“微优化”(micro-optimization),即过度着重、不断追求某一项指标的提升,而忽略了其他因 素。尤其当Facebook规模不断扩大,各个团队更专一于自己的产品,就可能导致各自只从自己的指标出发,使得整体上出现冲突,没有了全局观。

例如 ,应用菜单的设计几经周折,位置从左边栏换到顶部,又换到底部,由于流量不见大增,还曾考虑使用蓝色大按钮的方案。虽然流量提高了5倍,但由于设计师自己都觉得很难接受,这个方案最终没有被发布。无论如何,直到一年后他们才发现,尽管朝着提高引导到应用的流量这一指标不断优化,却出现停滞不前、 达到局部最大化(local maximization)的瓶颈。最终他们成立了一个菜单项目组,推翻之前的重新开始,设计了目前的版本——而这实际上有一半回归到菜单最初的样子。

另一个例子是相片上传器。相片团队花了好几个月朝着提高上传成功率的数字优化, 虽然数字有提升 , 但成功率已几乎稳定,不可能有什么新的变化了。如果一直围着这个指标打转,体验并不会有质的变化。

真正的创新通常会导致数据的变差 , 但这未必是坏事 。
“… real innovation invariably involves disruption. And disruption is usually – involves a dip in metrics ”


Facebook一个核心价值在于打破,甚至扰乱。这往往导致某些指标变差,但这也是创新的意义所在。他们曾经有不少无视民意无视数据的革新,比如新首页,就完全不是根据数据来的。当然,他们的革新有的成功(News Feed和Mini Feed),有的失败(如Beacon,将你在外站行为导入到FB的功能)。失败了,只要理解失败、承认失败,就能继续向前。不可能因为害怕数据变差而拒绝变革。但是, 变革有时候会因为扰乱用户而造成他们的反感,坚持变革,不代表不聆听。如演讲者提到他最喜欢的Facebook group是“我不由自主地讨厌新的Facebook首页”。需要学会如何更好地向用户传达革新的目的和意义。

4. 最大的冒险在于不敢冒险
“For us, the greatest risk is really taking no risk at all… at the end
of the day we make decisions based on common sense, on interests, on strategic interests. And we use data. We acknowledge it's important, but it's really just a small piece of the pie. ”

( 对我们而言,最大的冒险在于不敢冒险……很多时候,我们最终依靠常识、洞见、战略意义做决策。我们使用数据,数据很重要,但这只是大饼的一小块)